CausalTrader uses PCMCI+ and VARLiNGAM to surface the news, sentiment, and macro signals that actually drive a stock — packaged into a Morningstar-style equity research note with a per-headline basis-point attribution table and a statistical-methodology appendix.
Or $40/mo Pro for 10 reports per month. Cancel anytime.
Our IPO Analyzer ingests S-1 filings directly from SEC EDGAR and produces a structured risk-and-opportunity report — extracting financials, competitive positioning, risk factors, and growth drivers so you can evaluate pre-IPO companies with the same rigor as public equities.
Enter a company name or SEC CIK. ~17-page PDF delivered within 24 hours.
Built on peer-reviewed causal-inference research — PCMCI+ (Runge et al. 2019) and VARLiNGAM (Hyvärinen et al.) — with a frontier LLM writing the analyst memo on top of the evidence.
Two assets can correlate at 0.8 for a year and have nothing to do with each other. Trading on that confusion is how analysts get blindsided by regime shifts. CausalTrader is built around a single discipline: we only report a signal if it survives a causal test.
Every report ships with the full causal graph, edge statistics, and bootstrap confidence intervals — so you can audit the conclusion, not just read it.
Four agents collect their own slice of evidence in parallel: OHLCV bars and technicals, headlines from SEC EDGAR + Alpaca/Finnhub/GDELT, social-media sentiment via xAI/Grok, and macro proxies from VIXY, TLT, GLD, and UUP.
Multi-agent collectionPCMCI+ tests every signal against next-day returns and against every other signal, controlling for confounders and lags — on a 180-day causal context panel even when you pick a shorter analysis window. Spurious correlates are dropped. VARLiNGAM then attributes a basis-point effect to each individual headline, with bootstrap CIs and FDR correction.
PCMCI+ · VARLiNGAMA Morningstar-style equity note, the directed causal graph, a 4-panel technical chart with regime shading, a per-headline bps attribution table, and a causal volcano appendix showing every PCMCI+ test we ran. In your inbox within 24 hours of purchase.
Analyst memo + PDFGive us a company name or SEC CIK number. We locate the latest S-1 filing on EDGAR automatically — no digging through the SEC website yourself.
SEC EDGAR lookupOur S-1 parser extracts financials, risk factors, competitive positioning, and growth drivers from the full filing — normalizing tables and scoring risks by severity.
Automated extractionA ~17-page research report with a plain-English executive summary, bull/bear thesis, revenue trajectory, risk taxonomy, and competitive landscape — delivered to your inbox.
IPO research PDFA 25-page research note for any publicly traded stock or ETF — with a journalistic front-of-book, a directed causal graph from PCMCI+, per-headline news attribution from VARLiNGAM, a two-stage DCF, and a statistical-methodology appendix.
View full PDF Our IPO Analyzer ingests S-1 filings and produces a structured risk-and-opportunity report — extracting financials, competitive positioning, risk factors, and growth drivers so you can evaluate pre-IPO companies with the same rigor as public equities.
View full PDF Every report is the same pipeline: four data agents collect evidence, a causal layer filters spurious signals, and an LLM writes the memo — each layer independently testable, statistically validated, and repeatable for the same ticker on the same window.
SMA, EMA, RSI, ATR, MACD, Bollinger Bands, OBV. Fed by Alpaca minute and daily bars.
Social-media sentiment scored by xAI / Grok and the Loughran-McDonald financial lexicon.
Headlines from SEC EDGAR (8-K), Alpaca, Finnhub, and GDELT — auto-falls back if a key is missing.
VIXY, TLT, GLD, and UUP ETF proxies for fear, rates, gold, and the dollar.
PCMCI+ tests every signal against returns and against every other signal. VARLiNGAM attributes a basis-point effect to each headline with bootstrap CIs and FDR correction.
A comprehensive WSJ-style memo plus per-figure captions, grounded in the causal evidence — not the prompt. Every claim is anchored to a directed edge in the report.
We launched cheap on purpose. Until our hit-rate page is live, we'd rather have your feedback than your wallet — but we still need to keep the lights on.
One S&P 500 ticker, one comprehensive PDF. Same deliverable whether you buy once or subscribe.
For active investors who want a steady stream of causal reads on their watchlist.
Same Pro plan, billed once a year. Saves $80 versus paying monthly — about a free month and a half.
Pre-IPO? S-1 IPO review is also $5 one-time. Desks and APIs: email us.
Not investment advice. Reports are research products. All purchases subject to a 7-day money-back guarantee.
S&P 500 names at launch — those have the deepest news and analyst coverage, which gives the causal layer the most signal. Mid-caps and ADRs are coming as we expand the news source chain.
Each purchase is a point-in-time analysis of the window you choose (default 180 trading days). Pro subscribers can refresh any prior report at no extra cost within the same month — we'll re-run the pipeline on the latest bars and headlines.
Your chosen window (90, 180, or 365 days) controls the memo narrative, technical charts, and news scope. PCMCI+ causal discovery always runs on a separate 180-day context panel ending on the same trading day so the graph has enough statistical power. Read the dual-window explanation.
No. CausalTrader is a research product. Every report includes a clear disclaimer; nothing here is a recommendation, solicitation, or fiduciary advice. If you're managing client money, treat our output the way you'd treat any third-party research: as an input, not a decision.
Most factor models report correlations to a fixed factor library (value, momentum, quality, etc.). We don't assume the factors. PCMCI+ discovers the directed dependency structure for *this ticker, this window* — including signals that would never appear in a pre-baked factor table, like a specific earnings-related news cluster.
OHLCV bars and news from Alpaca; SEC EDGAR 8-K filings; Finnhub and GDELT for additional headline coverage; sentiment via xAI/Grok; macro via VIXY/TLT/GLD/UUP ETF proxies. Sources are listed on every report so you can verify the inputs.
Every report ships with its full causal graph, the directed edges that drove the conclusion, bootstrap confidence intervals on each effect estimate, and Benjamini-Hochberg FDR correction for multiple testing. The methods (PCMCI+, VARLiNGAM, market-model abnormal returns) are all peer-reviewed and cited inline. If the evidence doesn't support a claim, we don't make it.
You do. Reports are licensed to you for personal or internal-team use. Republishing or reselling is not permitted without a written license from us.
Because we'd rather have your feedback right now than your money. The $5 covers our API costs for a full run. We'll raise prices when we have a public hit-rate page; until then, we earn the right to charge more.
Yes. Our S-1 IPO review pulls the latest filing from EDGAR by company name or SEC CIK and delivers a ~17-page research PDF. Launch pricing is $5 on the S-1 checkout page.
Yes — we offer API access to the causal graph, raw attribution data, and white-label PDF rendering for desks and platforms. Email us to scope custom universes (international tickers, private securities, factor portfolios).
Drop your email for a sample chapter — or skip the line and buy a $5 report now.